ABSTRACTS OF ARTICLES OF THE JOURNAL "INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES".
No. 8. Vol. 27. 2021

DOI: 10.17587/it.27.435-444

V. V. Fedosov, Cand. Tech. Sc., e-mail: vlr.fdsv@gmail.com, Moscow, A. V. Fedosova, Cand. Phys.-Mat. Sc., e-mail: afedosova@unal.edu.co, National University, Bogota, Colombia (Universidad Nacional de Colombia), O. Buitrago, Master of Engineering, e-mail: oscar.buitrago@unimilitar.edu.co, Military University of New Granada, Bogota, Colombia (Universidad Militar Nueva Granada)

Stochastic Assessment of the Development of the Epidemic in Local Population Clusters

A mathematical model is proposed for stochastic assessment of the intensity of infection with highly active viruses in places with a high concentration of the population — closed (shopping and sports centers) or open (celebrations, rallies) spaces. Using a heuristic algorithm, the number of infected people is calculated depending on the observance or violation of the selected parameters: safe distances, personal immunity and protection standards. The initial conditions contain the total number of individuals in the clusters, the initial number of virus carriers, and the size of the space. Dispositions are introduced into the model that simulate the dynamics of changes in the coordinates of individuals in clusters. Programming, numerical experiments and graphics are done in MATLAB. A sharp jump was found in the number of those who had been initiated in case of non-observance of social distancing and frequent change of dispositions. The algorithm by fairly simple means allows you to quickly assess situations that are classified as poorly predictable. Introduces control elements into the complex problem of the development of an epidemic in local population clusters. The model is open to additions and improvements and may be of interest to support decision-making by healthcare or administrative authorities.
Keywords: transmission of the virus, protection standards, social distancing, population congestion, stochastic modeling

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