ABSTRACTS OF ARTICLES OF THE JOURNAL "INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES".
No. 9. Vol. 24. 2018

DOI: 10.17587/it.24.601-609

A. S. Borowski, Professor, e-mail: borovski@mail.ru, N. A. Shumilina, Senior lecturer, e-mail: shumilina_na@mail.ru, Orenburg State University, Orenburg, Russian Federation

Predictive Support for Decision-Making in Projects of Industrial Enterprises

Based on the fuzzy situation network, a method for developing managerial decisions in the design activity of industrial enterprises was proposed, taking into account the risk of equipment failure. To manage projects, a fuzzy representation of the input data is introduced, a lot of characteristics, situations and rules of fuzzy inference are determined to determine the state of the equipment and the status of the project.
The task of situational management for the phases of the life cycle of the project:
— making decisions on the composition of equipment when planning the project in the investment phase;
—development of control actions for maintenance and repair of equipment, as well as for the loading of equipment within the life cycle of the project during the operational phase.
The strategies of situational management for the phases of the life cycle of the project:
— include / not include the item under consideration in the list of project equipment in the investment phase;
—regulating time between overhaul (increase / decrease) and loading equipment (increase / decrease) during the operational phase.
Situation characteristics: duration of the project, equipment status, planned equipment loading, actual equipment loading.
Parameters characterizing the forecasted state after the control action: at the investment phase (the level of risk of equipment failure, equipment maintenance costs, the amount of investment in the project), in the operational phase (the level of risk of equipment failure, the level of underutilization of equipment in the project cycle, equipment maintenance costs).
Target situations: implementation of the project by zones of acceptable risk or closure of the project.
In the developed fuzzy situation network three levels of hierarchy are distinguished: situational, network and factor.
The situation level in the project is formed by two classes of typical situations:

— typical fuzzy situation in the state of equipment in the project;
— typical fuzzy situation in terms of production capacity of the project.

The network level is developed on the basis of expert knowledge. Two networks have been developed. The first network reflects situations that depend on the initial state of equipment, wear and down time. The second network reflects the work of the repair services, the mode of operation of equipment and the speed at which production capacities are being developed.
The factor level characterizes the "failure rate curve of equipment" and "the life-cycle curve of the project".
Approbation of the method was carried out to assess the risk of equipment failure in the reconstruction project of one of the woodworking enterprises of the Orenburg region.
Keywords: risk of equipment failure, fuzzy situation network, management strategy, management decisions

P. 601–609

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