DOI: 10.17587/prin.8.276-281

The Forecast of Gross Output and Manpower of Intersectoral Balance Model

K. F. Ivanova, Klara.I2010@yandex.ru, Saint Petersburg State University, Saint Petersburg, 195252, Russian Federation

Corresponding author: Ivanova Klara F., Doctorant, Saint Petersburg State University, Saint Petersburg, 195252, Russian Federation, E-mail: Klara.I2010@yandex.ru

In article the unified technique for solutions estimation of V. Leontevs model, in the conditions of uncertainty of models factors is offered. Statement of a problem of balance model concerns problems of functional optimization of gross output and other indicators oriented on forecasting of a planned economy. The functioning of multisectoral macroeconomic requires the balance between separate sectors. Each sector, on the one hand, is the producer, and on the other hand — the consumer of products issued by other sectors. These conditions set the connection between sectors based on the output and consumption of different types of products. Uncertainty of the input data arising at an error of measurements and their fluctuations is limited by some boundaries (intervals) where there can be their true value and makes the considered balance model more difficult for evaluation. The developed technique of a two-sided estimation of equations is based on use of known algebraic methods of linear algebra, and synthesis of two approaches to a solution of an estimation of sensitivity of a solution of the linear algebraic equations and exterior estimations of solutions interval set. The suggested approach for an estimation of the solution of interval model is constructed on two algebraic equations received on the basis of identity of boundary interval tech-nological matrices, and two formalized point optimal angular matrices. This approach differs from a earlier known one, received by methods of interval algebra. The algorithm of calculation is directed at searches of admissible areas of a solution of the balance equations of definition gross output, its prices, and amounts of the people occupied in an industry or in the social ratio-cultural areas. Definition of interval deviations of these indicators leads to a two-sided estimation of a solution in comparison with its mean values. The received results of calculations are the basis for acceptance of optimum decisions and the forecast in economic, industrial or social planning of static multisectoral balance model.

Keywords: balance model, uncertainty of the parameters, the unified technique, the interval approach, algorithm of calculation, optimal angular matrices, two-sided estimation

pp. 276–281

For citation:
Ivanova K. F. The Forecast of Gross Output and Manpower of Intersectoral Balance Model, Programmnaya Ingeneria, 2017, vol. 8, no. 6, pp. 276—281.