Journal "Software Engineering"
a journal on theoretical and applied science and technology
ISSN 2220-3397

Issue N4 2020 year

DOI: 10.17587/prin.11.251-256
Regression Model of Structural Factors of Cyber Threats
S. I. Noskov, sergey.noskov.57@mail.ru, A. S. Vergasov, tluck@inbox.ru, Irkutsk State Transport University, Irkutsk, 664074, Russian Federation
Corresponding author: Noskov Sergey I., Professor, Irkutsk State Transport University, 664074, Irkutsk, Russian Federation, E-mail: sergey.noskov.57@mail.ru
Received on March 19, 2020
Accepted on June 08, 2020

The work is based on a statistical analysis of data on cyberthreats classified by three groups of factors: motives of intruders, categories of victims, objects of attacks. This classification was adopted by Positive Technologies, which specializes in the development of information security systems and a comprehensive analysis of current trends in the implementation of cyber threats. As a result of processing the quarterly statistical information (from the 1st quarter of 2017 to 2nd quarter of 2019), an open regression recursive model of the dynamics of the nineteen structural factors of cyberthreats was constructed, which allows solving a wide range of problems of analysis and forecasting.

Keywords: regression model, cyberthreats, cyber kill chain, adequacy criteria, forecasting, recursion
pp. 251–256
For citation:
Noskov S. I., Vergasov A. S. Regression Model of Structural Factors of Cyber Threats, Programmnaya Ingeneria, 2020, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 251—256