Journal "Software Engineering"
a journal on theoretical and applied science and technology
ISSN 2220-3397
Journal "Software Engineering"
a journal on theoretical and applied science and technology
ISSN 2220-3397
Issue N3 2020 year
The problem of innovative projects risks assessment with use of fuzzy cognitive maps is considered. The special attention is paid to applying a new advanced class of cognitive models for these purposes — multilayer (nested) fuzzy grey cognitive maps (FGCM). The advantages of this class of models, allowing us to reveal the structure of causal relationships between elements of explored system with account of knowledge and experience of experts in considered subject domain, are described. The technique of choosing the rational structure of these models on the basis of formal decomposition rules for initial fuzzy cognitive map taking into account the specifics of the task being solved is offered. In accordance with this technique, at first the construction of initial (enlarged) FGCM is carried out by highlighting its basic concepts, including the risk factors, their consequences, and resulting risks of innovative project. The next stage consits in construction of the set of partial FGCMs revealing the content of each basic concept with use of additional local information about their inner structure. Further, the experts assign weights to the grey connections of the partial FGCMs. The final stage of the offered technique consists in modeling the obtained FGCM for different scenarios taking into account the influence of the different risk factors on potential risks of the innovative project implementation. The example of using this technique for risk assessment of the creation of a new innovative product in the sphere of infotelecommunication services is considered. The results of conducted computer experiments with use of the developed instrumental software tool "Cognitive Map Constructor" are considered.