Date received: 05.11.14

This paper presents a brief review of the state-of-the-art in the field of earthquake study and forecasting. We analyze the principles of the methods for determination of the coordinates of earthquake focuses by means of ground seismic stations. We demonstrate that those methods cannot be used in the system for monitoring of the beginning of the earthquake preparation process (in the network of RNM ASP stations).
As we know, the beginning of the earthquake process is accompanied by spreading of noisy seismic-acoustic signals. Theoretically, the system for monitoring of the beginning of the earthquake process is based on the technologies for seismic-acoustic signal processing — Robust Noise Monitoring (RNM). The noise characteristics determined by RNM technologies indicate the beginning of the anomalous seismic processes (ASP) and, consequently, a possibility of ASP monitoring.
Considering that the seismic-acoustic signal can be represented as the sum of the useful signal and noise (g = X + e ), we present the technologies for determining noise characteristics. It is demonstrated in the paper that a change in the estimate of the cross-correlation function R_Xe(m = 0) between the useful signal Х(iDt) and the noise e(iDt), noise variance De and the value of noise correlation R_Xee (m = 0) determine the beginning of ASP. One RNM ASP station determines the beginning of ASP within a radius of about 500 km. Determination of the location of an expected earthquake requires a network of RNM ASP stations.
We analyze the results of the noise technology-based monitoring of the anomalous seismic processes performed from July 2010 to June 2014 by nine seismic-acoustic stations built at the head of 10 m, 200 m, 300 m and 1400—5000 m deep wells. Based on the results of the experimental data obtained in the period covering over three years, an intelligent system has been built, which allows us to identify the location of the zone of an earthquake, using the combinations of time of change in the estimate of the correlation function between the useful signal and the noise of the seismic-acoustic information received from different stations 10—20 hours before the earthquake. In the long term, the system can be used by seismologists as a tool for determination of the location of the zone of an expected earthquake.

Keywords: seismic monitoring, anomalous seismic processes, intelligent seismic-acoustic system, robust noise technology, processing of seismic-acoustic information, expert system, neural network forecasting of earthquake zones

For citation:
Pashayev A. M., Alizada A. A., Aliev T. A., Abbasov A. M., Guluyev G. A., Pashayev F. G., Sattarova U. E. Intelligent Seismic-Acoustic System for Identifying the Location of the Focus of an Expected Earthquake, Mekhatronika, Avtomatizatsiya, Upravlenie, 2015, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 147—158.
DOI: 10.17587/mau/16.147-158

Corresponding author:
Pashayev Farhat G., PhD, Leading Researcher, Institute of Control Systems of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, Az1141, Baku, Azerbaijan Republic, e-mail: pasha.farhad@gmail.com

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